years ago, and notwithstanding that the inventions of science will make future wars more terrible, there is so much reason for the gravest apprehension. Regardless of the fact that preparation for war but too often makes war inevitable, and the fact that preparation places a grievous burden on the people, armaments are being momentarily increased, and in practice the theory seems to be abandoned that nations, like individuals, should live not as potential enemies, but as neighbors and friends. Our Government has a duty to perform, and it is performing it. Supported by an overwhelming public sentiment, the Government, within the limitations necessary to be observed, is striving to the utmost to make its full contribution to the maintenance of peace and civilization. Without any question of its earnestness and fidelity, it is pursuing every method within its province to discourage and minimize armed conflict.

I wish to refer briefly to another problem belonging to the class I have just indicated, having both foreign and domestic aspects. In recent years a dangerous conception has become too prevalent, a strange economic conception that a nation can live to itself and virtually dispense with customary international relations. It is significant that none of the statesmen who made history in the period before and during the Revolution, and during a long later period were connected with the Federal Government, had any thought that this country could or should lead a self-contained existence. All of the evidence is directly to the contrary. They were devoted to their own land, but even though communication was slow with other lands, they completely realized that it was not possible for this country to develop without commercial, social, and cultural relations with Europe. They of course barred the possibility of political relationship. It is for the purpose of returning to the older conception which they held that it has just been decided by Congress that the Executive shall have authority to negotiate trade agreements with other nations, it being expected that by this method there can be effected a substantial expansion of international commercial dealings, and markets opened that in recent years have been to a large extent fenced about by insurmountable barriers. I can have no argument with any who may be actuated by mere partisanship in opposing that policy. But I would invite such opponents as are not thus controlled to tell me, if they are now fearful of the possibilities of the limited and temporary regimentation of business, what relief they expect to find in any other direction; and should they be unable to give a specific reply, I would suggest to them that their opposition might prove disastrous, should the continuance of such international relations as now impede commerce force further regimentation.

I shall not detain you by prolonging observations which might, but could not on an occasion of this character properly be elaborated; but I must not close without a reference to the spirit which should animate every citizen as we pass through an ordeal of extreme and unprecedented difficulty. A feeling of fear or despair would be dangerous and perhaps fatal. Those of the earlier days to whom I have alluded tolerated no such feeling, but in the bitterest hours displayed the utmost faith, courage, and patience; and had they not been supremely hopeful, they could not have been either courageous, faithful, or patient. To emphasize this, let me quote the striking language of James Bryce-the final words of his great work on "Modern Democracies”: "Hope often disappointed but always renewed is the anchor by which the ship carries democracy and its fortunes will have to ride out the latest storm, as it has ridden out many storms democracy will never perish until after hope has expired."

Not dismayed by the enormous difficulties now being encountered, or by the overturn of some of the democracies that were in existence when war swept the world, it is for us to face the future with unabated hope that our democratic system as created by the fathers shall lose none of its strength and vigor in this time or in the years

The Consul at Berlin (Geist) to the Chief of the Division of Western European Affairs (Moffat), Department of State

DEAR MR. MOFFAT:

BERLIN, September 15, 1934.

With regard to the German public, observers are generally unanimous in the belief that the German nation, while anxiously regarding the present state of affairs, is content to be led on the political paths marked out for it by the National-Socialist Government. The National-Socialists have so strongly organized their position and so completely dominate the situation, that there is little possibility that anything serious will happen within the councils of the party or among the leaders of the Government. It is apparent that such men as von Neurath have agreed that the only hope for Germany's regaining her position in the world is along the lines laid down by the present regime, namely that Germany must first of all recover her military prestige, and then it may be seen what can be obtained from the rest of the world. They hope to be in a position

to assert themselves on the basis of their military strength, which of course is a dangerous and a disquieting outlook. Mr. Goering is known to have said a short time ago that after the 1st of April 1935 nobody will have anything to say in the air, and from reports which I get I am convinced that the German rearmament is concentrating upon two points; first, power in the air, and second, motorization of any attacking forces. There is nothing conservative or traditional in their present policy. Many of the young Nazis are enthusiastic with regard to the military prospects. They speak of gas war, of bacteriological war, of the use of death-dealing rays. They boast that airplanes will not pass the German frontiers. Their ideas of Germany's invincibility and Germany's power in "the next war" are really phantastic. It is to be concluded, however, from these remarks that a good deal of lively talking is going on in the Nazi circles and they are really thrilled in contemplating Germany's future tremendous victory over her enemies.

It is a significant fact in estimating the present situation in Germany, that into the youth is being inculcated an unprecedented, conscious and deliberate love of militarism and all that it stands for. It is one of the amazing things of modern history that the Government of a great power should definitely teach its children to cherish ideas of valor, heroism, self-sacrifice, unrelieved by any of the virtues which modern civilization has come to place above brute force. Primarily owing to the international political situation and the disposition of the great powers in Europe to consolidate a defense position, war may not be imminent, but it is very difficult to foresee how the bellicose spirit here can be restrained and directed into permanent channels of peace towards the end of this present decade. Very sincerely yours,

RAYMOND H. GEIST

37

765.84/54

The Ambassador in Italy (Long) to the Secretary of State

No. 734

SIR:

ROME, September 28, 1934.
[Received October 11.]

I have the honor to refer to my despatch No. 721 of September 21, 1934, enclosing a Memorandum of conversations in connection with Italy's relations with Abyssinia, and to enclose herewith the copy a Memorandum of another conversation on the same subject.21

of

There have been current in Italy-in all parts of Italy-for some time rumors to the effect that Italy contemplated warlike activity there. These rumors are generally to the following effect: that the Ministries of War, Air, Marine, Finance and Colonies were cooperating; that they had agreed upon an expenditure of two billion lire; that the Treasury had made provision for it in its budget; that military reinforcements specifically and variously stated to amount to 100,000 men, 200,000 men, and 250,000 men had been allocated for transfer there; that large and varying quantities of supplies, equipment, had been or were being or were about to be sent; that tanks, - air bombs, machine guns, barbed wire, airplanes, hangars, small tanks, small bore artillery, horses and mules had been and were being sent. It was specifically reported that on September 26th there would be sent to Eritrea or Somalia a large military expedition. I wrote each Consul at a seaport and asked him to watch his harbor and the movement there on that date. Naples reported 200 mules and 20 armored cars had left the week before but no shipments on the 26th. It also reported the rumor that 100,000 men had sailed from Brindisi September 24th but the Consul General agrees that the rumor is fantastic. Naples also reports that on or about the first of September the S.S. Caffaro of the Tirrenan Line sailed for its regular run down the east coast of Africa with 4000 tons of munitions of war and 30 or 40 army ambulances on deck.

Trieste reported that "several weeks ago" all local shipping companies were instructed to advise the Captain of the Port when any of their ships finished discharging cargo and any space was free. Also that the three vessels of the Lloyd Triestino Line, the Himalaya, Tergestea, and Fujiyama, on the Far Eastern run, all of which touch at Massaua, received instructions in August to include Taranto as a port of call. There is no commercial cargo to be loaded there. I would like to send someone to Taranto to spend a week or more for observation purposes, but an officer of the American Government would not be proper person to send.

Trieste also reports an order for 500,000 sun helmets to have been recently placed in Milan and the rumor that France has granted a war loan of 5,000,000 francs.

It is also reported General Badoglio is to command the expeditionary forces.

Leghorn reported that everything was normal there and at Pisa except the ubiquitous rumors about Italy's preparations for Abyssinian

war.

Genoa reported that the S.S. Dandolo, sailing September 26th for Port Said, Suez, Massaua, and Indian ports, is leaving with little cargo, including a number of large cases very possibly containing a couple of hangars and airplane spare parts, as well as two or three hundred boxes, small and very heavy, marked "Wire Nails", apparently of Swiss origin and addressed to Bassorah and Madras; that "It is reported that the S.S. Francesco Crispi, which sailed September 5th from Massaua, etc., and the Giuseppe Mazzini on her last voyage for the same ports, carried hangars as part of their cargoes. It is rumored that the S.S. Caffaro and Casaregis are expected to embark locomotives, rolling stock, ammunition and Red Cross supplies at Naples. According to rumors which have been going around Genoa for the past three or four weeks, the 'banana boats', which used to make their outward voyages quite empty, are now leaving this port with good cargoes of airplanes, hangars, motor trucks and munitions, said to be intended for Massaua. It is stated by sources believed to be reliable that the Fiat Company is manufacturing a large number of small motor lorries, all to be shipped to Massaua and Italian Somalia."

That preparations of an unusual sort are under way as regards the Italian East African Colonies of Eritrea and Italian Somalia is fairly well established in my mind. That they relate to Abyssinia I accept as quite possible. However, I do not think the Italians will begin an unprovoked attack against Abyssinia. They may try to arrange a "defensive" war, or may be so "provoked" by "depredations" or by "unruly tribes" as to start a punitive expedition which will gradually develop into a penetration. Or they may, as I think most likely, try to stir up dissension in the ranks of Ras Taffari and help one of his opponents with the idea of placing on the throne a successful rival who will receive the protection of Italy

Respectfully yours,

BRECKINRIDGE LONG

38

500.A15A5/372

The Ambassador in Japan (Grew) to the Secretary of State

No. 1102.

TOKYO, December 27, 1934.
[Received January 16, 1935.]

SIR:

Now that the London Naval Conversations have terminated, I should like to convey to the Department various thoughts in this