FEMALES Under 50 50-100 100-150 150-200 200-300 750-1000 1000-1500 3000-4000 4000-5000 3537 22.3 2091 6717 3434 1636 798 136 6.09 .57 .096 .028 .008 .0020 .00400 366 185 13.09 .77 .052 .032 .012 .0030 .00400 .0016 .0016 .0001 .00104 .00028 .00016 Note. The frequency for persons is the sum of the two values above. 17246 22405 34098 60778 85893 Part III.-The Inventory and Probate Methods of Estimating Wealth, and the Growth of Wealth. CHAPTER 1. ESTIMATE OF AUSTRALIAN PRIVATE WEALTH FOR 1915. 1. General. Of the various methods of estimating the wealth of the community the inventory method is that which furnishes most readily a comprehensive view of the various classes of wealth constituting the aggregate. In this respect it has advantages which do not attach to either the succession (probate) method, or the census method. The possibility of using it, however, is largely dependent on the existence of valuations of various kinds made for purposes other than the estimation of total wealth, as, for example, Local Government assessments, values of imports, values of plant and machinery engaged in various industries, etc. Further, in certain of the items direct valuation is not possible, and estimates based on indirect data and general knowledge must be employed, as, for example, an estimate of the value of clothing based on the known number of persons, and an assumed value per head, or a valuation of furniture based on the number of houses of various sizes or of various rental values. It is thus clear that, in common with all other estimates of wealth, the inventory method is involved in some measure of uncertainty, but it is doubtful whether this is more marked than in the case of other methods. On the other hand, it has the advantages (i.) that it enables a fair idea to be obtained of the degree of uncertainty involved in each item, (ii.) that unlike a census it costs little to compile and can consequently be prepared at relatively short intervals, (iii.) that it relates approximately to a definite point of time, whereas a "succession" estimate at its best can only give the average for an extensive period if it is to be at all reliable. 2. Basis of Estimate.-In the accompanying estimate provision has been made for the inclusion of all material private wealth existing in Australia, whether owned by persons domiciled in Australia or by those resident abroad, but public property whether national or communal has been omitted. Owing to this scheme it might possibly be considered necessary to include in the aggregate an item representing the securities for loans to Commonwealth and State Governments, and to public bodies, which are held in Australia, since such holdings will in all cases be included in succession returns and census results, and should thus be included to justify a comparison of the results obtained by the several methods. Although such inclusion might appear out of place in what is essentially a valuation of material objects, it might, perhaps, be possible to justify it on the view that the amount so included represents the portion of the national and communal property for which private investors resident in Australia hold certificates of title in the shape of bonds, debentures or stock. It is not clear, however, that a similar contention in favour of including the Australian public debt held outside the Commonwealth would not have equal validity. In view of all the circumstances it was decided to omit any reference to the public debt in the main estimate. 3. Aggregate of Detailed Estimates.-On combining detailed estimates, the total value of private wealth existing in Australia, exclusive of private interests in national and communal property, is found to be approximately 1620 millions sterling, or £327 per head of the mean population of the Commonwealth for 1915. A comparison of this estimate, however, with one based on a wealth census or on probate returns is not satisfactory unless there be added to the inventory estimate an allowance for the local holdings of Commonwealth, State and Municipal securities, all of which are brought to account in the census and probate methods. At the 30th June, 1915, the total amount so held was approximately 140 millions sterling, making with the sum quoted above, a total of 1760 millions as compared with the war census total of 1643 millions, and an uncorrected estimate on the probate basis of little more than 1000 millions. It can at least be said that the result obtained by the inventory method, although much in excess of any previous estimates, is in the main corroborated by the wealth census. A summary of the values obtained is furnished in the following table: |