The Future Impact of Automation on Workers

Přední strana obálky
Oxford University Press, 16. 1. 1986 - Počet stran: 192
While the computer revolution has created hundreds of thousands of new jobs, it has threatened as many other jobs with obsolescence and has often caused the displacement of workers by computer-based machines. Here, Nobel Prize-winning economist Wassily Leontief and Faye Duchin use the input-output approach, a method that has been widely applied in examining structural economic change, to analyze the complex issues surrounding the impact of computer-driven automation on employment. Following a general discussion of the impact of automation on employment, they focus on four specific sectors within the economy--manufacturing, office work, education, and health care. The input-output approach makes it possible to draw conclusions regarding both overall employment and the prospects for individual occupations. Taking account of the increased need for workers in the production of computer-based equipment, the authors conclude that by the year 2000 automation will not cause dramatic unemployment if the economy is able to achieve a smooth transition from the old to new technologies.


1 The Future Impact of Automation on Employment
2 The Automation of Manufacturing
3 The Automation of Office Work
4 Technological Change in Education
5 Technological Change in Health Care
6 Projections of Final Deliveries
Appendix A The Dynamic InputOutput Model
Appendix B The Historical Database 19631980
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O autorovi (1986)

Wassily Leontief is a Russian-born American economist and educator. After graduating from the University of Berlin, he worked briefly as a research associate with the (U.S.) National Bureau of Economic Research, where he did preliminary work on what is now known as an input-output model. He taught at Harvard University and then at New York University, where he founded the Institute for Economic Analysis. His Nobel Prize in 1973 was awarded for his work on input-output studies. Input-output analysis is a technique for determining how various sectors of the economy interact. Leontief's first input-output table consisted of a 44-sector model of the U.S. economy arranged in the form of a matrix, with columns and rows for each of the sectors. When purchases in a column are added, the result is the total amount of resources, or "inputs," required by the sector. Sales, or "outputs," in any given row represent the output of the sector. The value of the model is that it provides an overall picture of interdependencies among sectors, so that economists can determine how changes in one sector will affect performance in other sectors. The methodology is described in great detail in Leontief's classic Input-Output Economics (1966); a more specific application of the methodology can be found in his Future Impact of Automation on Workers (1986). The latter explores worker displacement by computer-based automation in U.S. manufacturing, office work, and education and health care industries. Today input-output models have a broad following, with some containing as many as 1,000 sectors. Leontief's models are used by the Pentagon, the World Bank, the United Nations, and over 30 countries for budgeting and economic prediction. Numerous other specialized applications of the model have been used in waste disposal management, pollution control, and even world disarmament.

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