The Presidential Pulse of Congressional ElectionsUniversity Press of Kentucky, 1. 12. 1997 - Počet stran: 316 An intriguing phenomenon in American electoral politics is the loss of seats by the president's party in midterm congressional elections. Between 1862 and 1990, the president's party lost seats in the House of Representatives in 32 of the 33 midterm elections. In his new study, James Campbell examines explanations for these midterm losses and explores how presidential elections influence congressional elections. After reviewing the two major theories of midterm electoral change-the "surge and decline" theory and the theory of midterms as referenda on presidential performance Campbell draws upon each to propose and test a new theory. He asserts that in the years of presidential elections congressmen ride presidential coattails into office, while in midterm elections such candidates are stranded. An additional factor is the strength of the presidential vote, which influences the number of seats that are won, only to be lost later. Finally, Campbell examines how the presidential pulse may affect electoral accountability, the relationship between Congress and the president, and the relative strength of Congress, the president, and political parties. He explores the implications of the presidential pulse for understanding electoral change, evaluating the American voter's competence, and assessing the importance of split-ticket voting. Including both election returns and survey data, The Presidential Pulse of Congressional Elections offers a fresh perspective on congressional elections, voting behavior, Congress, and the presidency. |
Obsah
Introduction | 1 |
The Midterm Question | 7 |
The Premises of Surge and Decline | 22 |
The Propositions and Evidence of Surge and Decline | 40 |
The Theory of the Midterm Referendum | 67 |
The Revised Theory of Surge and Decline | 87 |
Evidence from National Elections | 119 |
Evidence in Congressional Districts | 143 |
Surge and Decline in Subpresidential Elections | 189 |
The Presidential Pulse in the 1990s | 207 |
Reflections on the Presidential Pulse | 234 |
Presidential Vote and HouseSeat Regressions | 258 |
Notes | 264 |
References | 296 |
311 | |
Evidence in the Electorate | 172 |
Další vydání - Zobrazit všechny
The Presidential Pulse of Congressional Elections James E. Campbell Náhled není k dispozici. - 1997 |
Běžně se vyskytující výrazy a sousloví
Adjusted R2 advantaged partisans analysis Campbell coefficients Congress congressional elections congressional vote congressional-vote core voters cross-pressures decline effects Democratic presidential vote dential Dependent variable difference disadvantaged partisans disaffection divided government elec equation error estimates evaluations evidence examined expected explain greater gressional incumbent indicates landslide legislative seat measure Midterm Change midterm congressional midterm decline midterm elections midterm losses midterm seat losses midterm vote negative normal vote on-year elections original theory partisan defections partisanship percent percentage points peripheral voters presiden president's party presidential and congressional presidential and midterm presidential campaign presidential coattails presidential pulse presidential surge presidential-election prior presidential election prior presidential vote proposition realignment variable referenda theory regression Republican presidential Republican realignment revised theory robust regression seat change seat gains Senate separation of powers split-ticket voting surge and decline surge-and-decline theory of surge tial tion tisan turnout variance vote and seat vote choice vote loss winning presidential party
Odkazy na tuto knihu
Before the Vote: Forecasting American National Elections James E. Campbell,James Garand Náhled není k dispozici. - 2000 |
Before the Vote: Forecasting American National Elections James E. Campbell,James Garand Náhled není k dispozici. - 2000 |