Forecasting in Business and Economics
Forecasting in Business and Economics presents a variety of forecasting techniques and problems. This book discusses the importance of the selection of a relevant information set. Organized into 12 chapters, this book begins with an overview of the forecasting techniques that are useful in decision making. This text then discusses the difficulties in interpreting an apparent trend and discusses its implications. Other chapters consider how a time series is analyzed and forecast by discussing the methods by which a series can be generated. This book discusses as well the views of most ac
1 online resource (237 pages).
9781483273594, 1483273598
1041189135
Front Cover; Forecasting in Business and Economics; Copyright Page; Table of Contents; Preface; CHAPTER 1. Basic Concepts of Forecasting; 1.1 A SCENARIO; 1.2 SOME FORECASTING SITUATIONS; 1.3 TYPES OF FORECASTS; 1.4 INFORMATION SETS AND COST FUNCTIONS; 1.5 A NOTE ON NOTATION; QUESTIONS; CHAPTER 2. Trend-Line Fitting and Forecasting; 2.1 INTRODUCING TRENDS; 2.2 CHOOSING AND ESTIMATING A CURVE; 2.3 FORECASTING USING TREND CURVES; 2.4 TREND REMOVED BY DIFFERENCING; 2.5 IRREGULARLY RECORDED DATA; QUESTIONS; FURTHER READINGS; CHAPTER 3. Forecasting from Time Series Models; 3.1 WHITE NOISE. 3.2 MOVING AVERAGES3.3 AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELS; 3.4 MIXED AUTOREGRESSIVE-MOVING AVERAGE MODELS; 3.5 STATIONARITY AND INVERTIBILITY; 3.6 THE CORRELOGRAM AND PARTIAL CORRELOGRAM; 3.7 THE BOX-JENKINS APPROACH TO MODEL BUILDING; 3.8 NUMERICAL EXAMPLES; QUESTIONS; FURTHER READINGS; CHAPTER 4. Further Aspects of Time Series Forecasting; 4.1 CYCLES AND THE SEASONAL COMPONENT; 4.2 LOW-COST TIME SERIES FORECASTING METHODS; 4.3 WHICH METHOD TO USE; 4.4 PROPERTIES OF OPTIMUM FORECASTS; 4.5 NUMERICAL EXAMPLE OF SEASONAL SERIES; QUESTIONS; FURTHER READINGS. CHAPTER 5. Regression Methods and Econometric Models5.1 RELATING VARIABLES; 5.2 CAUSAL MODELS: AN EXAMPLE; 5.3 CAUSAL MODELS: THE GENERAL CASE; 5.4 SOME PRACTICAL PROBLEMS; 5.5 ECONOMETRIC MODELS; 5.6 AN ACTUAL ECONOMETRIC MODEL; QUESTIONS; FURTHER READINGS; CHAPTER 6. Survey Data: Anticipations and Expectations; 6.1 OVERVIEW OF THE USE OF SURVEY DATA; 6.2 ANTICIPATION DATA; 6.3 EXPECTATIONS AND ATTITUDES; 6.4 SURVEY OF FORECASTERS; QUESTIONS; FURTHER READINGS; CHAPTER 7. Leading Indicators; 7.1 SWINGS IN THE ECONOMY; 7.2 THE SEARCH FOR INDICATORS; 7.3 EVALUATION OF INDICATORS. 7.4 THE 1974-1975 DEPRESSIONQUESTIONS; FURTHER READINGS; CHAPTER 8. Evaluation and Combination of Forecasts; 8.1 EVALUATING AN INDIVIDUAL FORECASTING METHOD; 8.2 EVALUATING A GROUP OF FORECASTING METHODS; 8.3 THE COMBINATION OF FORECASTS; 8.4 HOW WELL DO THE METHODS WORK?; QUESTIONS; FURTHER READINGS; CHAPTER 9. Population Forecasting; 9.1 STATING THE PROBLEM; 9.2 POPULATION EXTRAPOLATION; 9.3 BIRTH-RATE FORECASTING; QUESTIONS; FURTHER READING; CHAPTER 10. Technological Forecasting; 10.1 INTRODUCTION; 10.2 GROWTH CURVES; 10.3 THE DELPHI METHOD; 10.4 OTHER TECHNIQUES. 10.5 EXAMPLES OF SCENARIOSAPPENDIX: SOME PROBABLE AND POSSIBLE SCIENTIFIC INNOVATIONS; QUESTIONS; FURTHER READINGS; CHAPTER 11. World Models; 11.1 INTRODUCING WORLD MODELS; 11.2 EVALUATION; 11.3 FOOD FOR A DOUBLING WORLD POPULATION; FURTHER READINGS; CHAPTER 12. Techniques Old and New; 12.1 FORECASTS FROM THE PAST; 12.2 CHOOSING METHODS; 12.3 THE MANAGEMENT OF FORECASTS; QUESTIONS; FURTHER READINGS; Index